Sunday, 18 June 2017

The Fourth Industrial Revolution - Book Review, Opinions and a Discussion


I first saw the book ‘The Fourth Industrial Revolution’ in the National Science Museum in London, a short time later I bought it from Amazon.
The book is written by Klaus Schwab, Klaus is the founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. The World Economic Forum is known to everybody in business for its annual meeting in Davos, where the most important and interesting talking points are the topics of speakers at the top of their fields.
The book talks about the drivers and impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, this cause and effect layout I


s easy to grasp and will identify with its target audience: Business men and women that are excited, curious and cautious about the future of industry.
The book looks at the way that businesses can and are using the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its tools, such as the internet of Things (IoT), to gain an advantage in their own and other markets.
The author looks at various talking points and potentially contentious areas that may cross ethical boundaries. Some of these are listed below:
·         Designer babies
·         People tracking
·         Mass unemployment
·         Pensions and the funding of pensions
I will not divulge into the content of the book any more so not to ruin the book for any potential readers. Although I would like to say that I highly recommend this book for any student, manager or business leader.
The book has a large section in the book for the appendices, this shows that the book has a strong intellectual background and that all the information in the book are reliable.

The second part of this post is a discussion starter where I will talk about what I believe are the major issues and factors involved in Industry 4.0.
I think that the main talking points of Industry 4.0 are:
·         Timeframes, when will some of the technologies be common place
·         Ethical aspects
·         The future of employment
·         The future of humans

I will discuss these points and ask some questions that I will not answer. Industry 4.0 is at the cutting edge of technology, many of the topics are unknown, the questions that I will pose are to make the reader think about the subject, and how humanity should control and use the technology they are producing.

Timeframes
The autonomous or self-driving car has become a figure head of industry 4.0. The possibility of parcel being delivered by drones or vehicles that do not require a human could soon be a possibility. One of the key questions is how soon?
Google started Waymo in 2009 with a time frame that said the self-driving car would be available in 2017. This has now been extended till 2020. Tesla are also looking at autonomous vehicles, the Tesla autopilot has been a feature on their cars since 2014. With them liking to display a working vehicle in 2017, making the update available in 2019.There have been many issues and setbacks with autonomous vehicles, California famously banned the use of cars without drivers.
But when will the technology be used by most people? I think that the timelines given by manufacturers are misleading because a working model cannot be used on the road without the introduction of laws and regulation. This regulation could take years to write and pass. I think that we are looking at 30+ years before autonomous vehicles are the norm on our roads.
Many other uses of industry 4.0 are being used today, people can control heating and lighting in their homes via a mobile app, household products can communicate with each other and user through wireless connections, we can charge mobiles without inserting a cable. There are aspects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution that are in common use now, others may take decades. The First Industrial Revolution started in around 1760 and lasted until sometime between 1820 and 1840. We are probably in the first 5 to 10 years of this revolution, potentially the next 50 to 70 years could be very interesting if we are lucky enough to be alive that long.

Ethical Aspects
In the book one of the pieces of technology that is mention is people tracking. Currently, you can track parcels as they move from the company you bought them to your front door, or you can put a tracker on your car just in case it is stolen, these technologies are becoming more available now and are accepted without any fuss. But what if we tracked people?
Part of this Industrial Revolution is that biological advances could also be integrated into the wider environment. Elon Musk has recently invested in biology and the controlling of digital and physical systems with the human brain. Musk’s new company Neuralink aims to use develop the technology to enable users to integrate their brains with other systems. The ethical stance on this is unbroken ground, the idea of this was in the realm of science fiction, the question has been “is it possible?” rather than “should we?”
There are many large people groups who would say that we should not do this. There is a possibility that we could come to read people’s minds, and this has all sorts of implications with data protection and privacy. However, these programs could form an alternative to AI for some applications. AI has its own questions and critics: Musk himself and Professor Hawking are just 2 of many people who have expressed concerns.

The future of Employment
One of the main worries regarding the Fourth Industrial Revolution is the rise of Automation. More and more activities in industry, from manufacturing to call centres, are being automated. This is only going to rise as the Revolution takes hold. Some people have predicted that this could cause a mass unemployment in some western societies, prompting people to look at alternatives.
One of suggested solutions to this is something called Universal Basic Income (UBI). This is something that has been supported by Elon Musk (he features regularly in discussions on the future of industry). In short, the basic idea of UBI is that each citizen, regardless of their situation get given sum of money. This will reduce poverty to nearly zero, rising the standard of living across the whole community.
The downsides to this idea are that politicians believe that the UBI could remove the reward of working. This could make a lack of unskilled and semi-skilled workers. There is also the debate about whether the idea would be viable and feasible with current funds in most countries.
There is a similar system in Alaska called the ‘Alaska Permanent Fund.’ Finland also started a 2 year UBI trail and study in January 2017. Universal Basic Income is not to be written off quite yet, and more serious discussions may be made as the automation of services continues to rise.

The future of emerging markets
It is not unknown for a company to come into a market with disrupting technology and resultantly wipe out the companies that are not prepared to move into the future. You only have to think as far as Netflix wiping out blockbuster, or the likes of Amazon and over ecommerce companies removing multiple shops from the high street. These forward-thinking companies or ‘disrupters’ use technology to change products or business completely.
Disrupters can even create whole new markets or eliminate markets completely. Think of Spotify, music streaming provides an alternative to buying music or downloading illegally. People pay a small fee of £10 per month and get access to a large supply of music, without having to download or buy music. This saves memory space on devices and physical space in rooms. Uber and AirBnB have shown that mobile apps can be a way of transforming markets, with market leaders owning relatively low amounts of assets.
These disrupters are not new though, look at how the mechanical clothing industry was affected by Arkwright’s water frame, or how the equestrian industry was affected by the motor vehicle. Henry Ford famously said, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” This must be the attitude of the current industrial revolution. People like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Tim Cook and companies like Uber and AirBnB will continue to drive the revolution despite anybody’s reservations. We need to adapt to enter new markets and job roles to ensure we have employment, embracing Industry 4.0 is the way forward.
To sum up, it’s getting more and more obvious that we are currently in an industrial revolution. There will be a lot of companies that fail to see the other side of the revolution, either through failure to meet customer expectations, not reacting to new technology or through their whole industry being wiped out. Business leaders need to be adapt and pivot: their companies need to be agile, aware and constantly innovating. If they can do this then they may be the next disrupter.

What are your opinions of the book? How big with the Fourth Industrial be? Are we even in a revolution?
You can buy the book from Amazon here:

Feel free to email me your views opinions and requests at: chris.harris@technologybusinessandengineering.com

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