I first saw the book ‘The Fourth Industrial
Revolution’ in the National Science Museum in London, a short time later I
bought it from Amazon.
The book is written by Klaus Schwab, Klaus
is the founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. The World
Economic Forum is known to everybody in business for its annual meeting in
Davos, where the most important and interesting talking points are the topics
of speakers at the top of their fields.
The book talks about the drivers and
impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, this cause and effect layout I
s
easy to grasp and will identify with its target audience: Business men and
women that are excited, curious and cautious about the future of industry.
The book looks at the way that businesses
can and are using the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its tools, such as the
internet of Things (IoT), to gain an advantage in their own and other markets.
The author looks at various talking points
and potentially contentious areas that may cross ethical boundaries. Some of
these are listed below:
·
Designer babies
·
People tracking
·
Mass unemployment
·
Pensions and the funding of
pensions
I will not divulge into the content of the
book any more so not to ruin the book for any potential readers. Although I
would like to say that I highly recommend this book for any student, manager or
business leader.
The book has a large section in the book
for the appendices, this shows that the book has a strong intellectual
background and that all the information in the book are reliable.
The second part of this post is a
discussion starter where I will talk about what I believe are the major issues
and factors involved in Industry 4.0.
I think that the main talking points of
Industry 4.0 are:
·
Timeframes, when will some of
the technologies be common place
·
Ethical aspects
·
The future of employment
·
The future of humans
I will discuss these points and ask some
questions that I will not answer. Industry 4.0 is at the cutting edge of technology,
many of the topics are unknown, the questions that I will pose are to make the
reader think about the subject, and how humanity should control and use the
technology they are producing.
Timeframes
The autonomous or self-driving car has
become a figure head of industry 4.0. The possibility of parcel being delivered
by drones or vehicles that do not require a human could soon be a possibility.
One of the key questions is how soon?
Google started Waymo in 2009 with a time
frame that said the self-driving car would be available in 2017. This has now
been extended till 2020. Tesla are also looking at autonomous vehicles, the
Tesla autopilot has been a feature on their cars since 2014. With them liking
to display a working vehicle in 2017, making the update available in 2019.There
have been many issues and setbacks with autonomous vehicles, California
famously banned the use of cars without drivers.
But when will the technology be used by
most people? I think that the timelines given by manufacturers are misleading
because a working model cannot be used on the road without the introduction of
laws and regulation. This regulation could take years to write and pass. I
think that we are looking at 30+ years before autonomous vehicles are the norm
on our roads.
Many other uses of industry 4.0 are being
used today, people can control heating and lighting in their homes via a mobile
app, household products can communicate with each other and user through
wireless connections, we can charge mobiles without inserting a cable. There
are aspects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution that are in common use now,
others may take decades. The First Industrial Revolution started in around 1760
and lasted until sometime between 1820 and 1840. We are probably in the first 5
to 10 years of this revolution, potentially the next 50 to 70 years could be
very interesting if we are lucky enough to be alive that long.
Ethical
Aspects
In the book one of the pieces of technology
that is mention is people tracking. Currently, you can track parcels as they
move from the company you bought them to your front door, or you can put a
tracker on your car just in case it is stolen, these technologies are becoming
more available now and are accepted without any fuss. But what if we tracked people?
Part of this Industrial Revolution is that
biological advances could also be integrated into the wider environment. Elon
Musk has recently invested in biology and the controlling of digital and
physical systems with the human brain. Musk’s new company Neuralink aims to use
develop the technology to enable users to integrate their brains with other
systems. The ethical stance on this is unbroken ground, the idea of this was in
the realm of science fiction, the question has been “is it possible?” rather
than “should we?”
There are many large people groups who
would say that we should not do this. There is a possibility that we could come
to read people’s minds, and this has all sorts of implications with data
protection and privacy. However, these programs could form an alternative to AI
for some applications. AI has its own questions and critics: Musk himself and
Professor Hawking are just 2 of many people who have expressed concerns.
The
future of Employment
One of the main worries regarding the
Fourth Industrial Revolution is the rise of Automation. More and more
activities in industry, from manufacturing to call centres, are being
automated. This is only going to rise as the Revolution takes hold. Some people
have predicted that this could cause a mass unemployment in some western
societies, prompting people to look at alternatives.
One of suggested solutions to this is
something called Universal Basic Income (UBI). This is something that has been
supported by Elon Musk (he features regularly in discussions on the future of
industry). In short, the basic idea of UBI is that each citizen, regardless of
their situation get given sum of money. This will reduce poverty to nearly
zero, rising the standard of living across the whole community.
The downsides to this idea are that
politicians believe that the UBI could remove the reward of working. This could
make a lack of unskilled and semi-skilled workers. There is also the debate
about whether the idea would be viable and feasible with current funds in most
countries.
There is a similar system in Alaska called
the ‘Alaska Permanent Fund.’ Finland also started a 2 year UBI trail and study
in January 2017. Universal Basic Income is not to be written off quite yet, and
more serious discussions may be made as the automation of services continues to
rise.
The
future of emerging markets
It is not unknown for a company to come
into a market with disrupting technology and resultantly wipe out the companies
that are not prepared to move into the future. You only have to think as far as
Netflix wiping out blockbuster, or the likes of Amazon and over ecommerce
companies removing multiple shops from the high street. These forward-thinking
companies or ‘disrupters’ use technology to change products or business completely.
Disrupters can even create whole new
markets or eliminate markets completely. Think of Spotify, music streaming
provides an alternative to buying music or downloading illegally. People pay a
small fee of £10 per month and get access to a large supply of music, without
having to download or buy music. This saves memory space on devices and
physical space in rooms. Uber and AirBnB have shown that mobile apps can be a
way of transforming markets, with market leaders owning relatively low amounts
of assets.
These disrupters are not new though, look
at how the mechanical clothing industry was affected by Arkwright’s water frame,
or how the equestrian industry was affected by the motor vehicle. Henry Ford
famously said, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said
faster horses.” This must be the attitude of the current industrial revolution.
People like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Tim Cook and companies like Uber and AirBnB will
continue to drive the revolution despite anybody’s reservations. We need to
adapt to enter new markets and job roles to ensure we have employment,
embracing Industry 4.0 is the way forward.
To sum up, it’s getting more and more
obvious that we are currently in an industrial revolution. There will be a lot
of companies that fail to see the other side of the revolution, either through
failure to meet customer expectations, not reacting to new technology or through
their whole industry being wiped out. Business leaders need to be adapt and pivot:
their companies need to be agile, aware and constantly innovating. If they can
do this then they may be the next disrupter.
What are your opinions of the book? How big
with the Fourth Industrial be? Are we even in a revolution?
You can buy the book from Amazon here:
Feel free to email me your views opinions
and requests at: chris.harris@technologybusinessandengineering.com
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